by Fady Noun

Trump’s announcement could trigger economic “detente” and encourage the return of Syrian refugees. Reconstruction, trade and banking links between Beirut and Damascus could be revived. In the background looms the possibility of normalisation with Israel. Walid Joumblatt reminds us of the Arab world’s key condition: “Peace in exchange for territory.”

Beirut (AsiaNews) – Druze leader Walid Joumblatt was the first Lebanese political figure to welcome the lifting of sanctions on Syria, including the infamous “Caesar Act” of 2019, announced on 13 May by President Donald Trump in Riyadh, and warmly received by the Syrian population.

Notably, Joumblatt was also the first world leader to meet Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus. While the lifting of sanctions marks a turning point, numerous hurdles remain before Syria’s economy can begin to recover from years of isolation and war. Still, the Syrian pound has already appreciated by 25% on the strength of the announcement alone.

In any case, the decision bolsters the legitimacy of al-Sharaa’s leadership and supports Syria’s path toward stabilisation—something that will inevitably have positive repercussions for Lebanon under President Joseph Aoun. Lebanon, too, has struggled to secure funding to rebuild its border villages and continues to suffer regular Israeli airstrikes and attacks.

“We cannot separate regional developments from Lebanon,” said Joumblatt. “We hope to preserve the geographic borders established by the Sykes-Picot agreements. What matters to us is the preservation of Greater Lebanon, which remains tied to a solution for Palestine.”

Joumblatt’s main concern is the political impact on the territorial integrity of Syria and Lebanon. An economic recovery in Syria would likely ease the social and sectarian tensions that Israel has sought to inflame, with the aim of fragmenting Syria into autonomous Alawite, Kurdish, Druze and Sunni enclaves.

Caught up in local political calculations ahead of municipal elections—precursors to legislative polls in May 2026—Lebanese Christian leaders have also welcomed the “American surprise.”

However, their reactions have yet to fully reckon with the implications for the large population of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Since 2011, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have fled to Lebanon to escape the war. Official estimates suggest that Lebanon is hosting between 1.5 and 2 million Syrian refugees, placing a massive burden on its already fragile economy.

“This repatriation, which began following the fall of the Assad dynasty in December 2024, must accelerate if Syria is to return to any degree of economic prosperity,” said Christian leader Samy Gemayel, head of the Kataeb Party.

According to news agencies, President Trump has linked the lifting of sanctions to a pledge by Damascus to normalise relations with Israel. Joumblatt seized the moment, declaring: “Who said Lebanon opposes the Abraham Accords? This initiative was born in Lebanon in 2002, during the Beirut Arab Summit, which endorsed the principle of land for peace to end the Arab-Israeli conflict—a collective normalisation in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state and Israel’s withdrawal from occupied territories.”

Under pressure from Washington—especially via the ceasefire oversight commission established in November 2024—Lebanese political voices remain united in one view: a Lebanon where Hezbollah remains armed “will be the last Arab country to normalise relations with Israel.” Still, as Samy Gemayel points out, Lebanon “cannot remain outside the Arab consensus.”

The Consequences

In practical terms, Lebanon could benefit significantly from the lifting of the Caesar Act sanctions. Port infrastructure and Lebanese businesses stand to gain from Syria’s reconstruction, which is estimated to cost between 0 billion and 0 billion. Key sectors such as cement and construction would likely see a surge in demand. Geographical proximity and experience are undeniable assets for Lebanese entrepreneurs, as their business federation has highlighted.

The Caesar Act of 2019 had imposed sanctions on all entities—including foreign actors—who assisted the Syrian regime in acquiring resources or technologies that could support its military activities or reconstruction efforts. While its repeal still requires approval from the US Congress, “it’s only a matter of time,” analysts say, noting that President Trump has the legal authority to suspend the law for 180 days, with the option to renew.

“The revival of commercial and economic activity in Syria will have a positive domino effect on Lebanon,” explained Amir Al-Samman, international policy expert and founder of the SyriaSpeaks initiative, in an interview with L’Orient-Le Jour. He added that trade between the two countries would gain renewed momentum.

This policy shift could also benefit Lebanon’s banking sector, which could once again engage more freely with Syrian banks and clients. For this to happen, Syria must be reconnected to international banking networks such as SWIFT and IBAN, from which it has been excluded since 2011.

Finally, Lebanese Finance Minister Yassine Jaber has cited other positive impacts of the sanctions being lifted. These include the acceleration of a plan—under discussion since early May—for the transit of Iraqi oil to Lebanon’s dormant Tripoli refinery. Other projects include the installation of a fibre-optic link between Lebanon and Syria, and the development of a regional electricity network connecting Lebanon to the Arab hinterland.

However, all these positive prospects hinge on the complete disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon—a process that is both political and security-related, and which many Lebanese feel is progressing far too slowly. Iran, meanwhile, appears to be using the issue as a bargaining chip in its nuclear negotiations with Washington.